The conservative Law and Justice party (PiS), led by eurosceptic Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has won Poland's general elections, ending eight years of centrist rule and ousting the left for the first time under democratic rule, official results showed Monday.

Given high-pitched tensions during Kaczynski's previous 2005-7 stint in power as prime minister, analysts said his comeback also risks inflaming tensions with the EU and Russia.

The state elections commission did not confirm the absolute parliamentary majority for PiS projected by exit polls, saying it would publish the distribution of seats on Tuesday.

"Even if PiS falls a few MPs short of a majority, it will easily be able to 'convince' ones from smaller parties to join it in government," Warsaw University political scientist Anna Materska-Sosnowska told AFP.

Kaczynski did not run for prime minister, but he is expected to call the shots in the next government, which he has signalled could be headed by Beata Szydlo, 52.

A coal miner's daughter, she ran a victorious presidential campaign in May for Kaczynski protege, political greenhorn Andrzej Duda, ousting centrist ally Bronislaw Komorowski.

Noting the PiS's newfound control of both the executive and legislative branches of government, the Polish edition of Newsweek -- which has also been critical of PiS -- slapped a picture of Kaczynski with a crown on his head on its cover, writing that he is "very close to seizing absolute authority in Poland".

Kaczynski thanked Szydlo in his victory speech on Sunday and also paid tribute to his identical twin brother, the late president Lech Kaczynski, who died in a 2010 plane crash in Smolensk, western Russia.

"Without him, we wouldn't be here today. His spirit is stronger than his body," the former child actor said of his twin, with whom he founded the party.

Kaczynski's platform played strongly on fears arising from Europe's worst migrant crisis since World War II and analysts said a PiS government was likely to reverse incumbent Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz's decision to accept refugees.

The PiS leader claimed refugees were bringing "cholera to the Greek islands, dysentery to Vienna, various types of parasites," in comments that critics said recalled the Nazi era.

He insists Warsaw should financially support EU efforts to tackle the crisis but not take in refugees -- a view surveys suggest is shared by nearly 60 percent of Poles.

- 'Big comeback' -

"After eight years in opposition, Kaczynski is making a big comeback," Warsaw political analyst Eryk Mistewicz told AFP.

Poland has become an east European heavyweight after a quarter century of explosive growth and vastly-improved living standards since the fall of communism.

But although the EU member's economy is forecast to expand by 3.5 percent this year and next, and joblessness recently fell below 10 percent, many voters are fed up, believing time and money have been wasted.

The governing Civic Platform (PO) also never recovered from a 2014 eavesdropping scandal that discredited high-profile government ministers.

The departure last year of party leader Donald Tusk to the post of EU Council president set the centrists adrift.

The governing Civic Platform (PO) liberals came second with 24.09 percent, the elections commission said late Monday.

Three other parties also entered parliament, but the left was ousted from the lower house for the first time since the advent of democracy 25 years ago.

Szydlo has pledged to lower the pension age, introduce generous family benefits, and impose taxes on banks and foreign-owned hypermarkets while cutting taxes for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Her populist-oriented promises targeted the core conservative electorate in the poorer, devoutly Catholic east and public sector workers, but critics warn the moves could destabilise robust public finances.

- 'Kaczynski 2.0' -

The right-wing PiS last held power in 2005-7, when Kaczynski governed with his identical twin.

That era was marked with internal political turmoil, triggered by the brothers' combative style and international tensions brought on by their anti-German and anti-Russian views as well as a row with the EU over Poland's weighting in the bloc's decision-making.

"We might now see a 'Kaczynski 2.0'," Mistewicz told AFP, signalling the PiS leader may tone down his politics.

"Rather than aggressively locking horns with the EU, he will look for ways to extract maximum benefit from it. With Russia, he may also forego confrontation."

Analysts agree the PiS will still anchor Poland's security policy in NATO and strong US ties as a buffer against any threat from Russia.

It will seek ways to continue heavy reliance on coal at upcoming global climate talks, and joining the eurozone will remain a distant prospect.
Source: AFP