Worries mount as Nokia burns through cash reserves

Nokia is tearing through its cash reserves at an unsustainable rate, raising what some analysts say are serious questions about the struggling Finnish phone maker's ability to stabilise its finances in the months ahead. With the cost of Nokia's debt rising, the most bearish of analysts in a Reuters poll said the company could even be at risk of default if it fails to slow the burning of its cash. Over the past five quarters, the one-time darling of mobile telecom has eroded its cash pile by 2.1 billion euros ($2.7 billion), a rate that would wipe out its entire 4.9 billion euros reserves in a couple years. Analysts on an average expect the company will burn through almost 2 billion euros more in just three quarters, while the most bearish see the company wiping out its 4.9 billion euros net cash buffer completely next year, a Reuters poll of 30 banks and brokerages showed on Friday. "In our opinion, the company's ability to repay even its shorter-term 2014 bond could be an issue," said Societe General Credit Analyst Juliano Torii. The company, which had more than 10 billion euros in cash on hand in 2007, has two bond issues outstanding, 1.25 billion euros of 5.5% bonds maturing in 2014 and 500 million of 6.75% notes due in 2019. The bonds - both junk-rated by Fitch and Standard & Poor's - are trading at record wides versus mid-swaps (a money market benchmark), at around 400 basis points and 683 bps respectively. And those levels may still not be wide enough, some say. "Nokia's spreads do not reflect the severity of the company's situation," said Torii. It's also getting more expensive to insure against default. Five-year credit default swaps (CDS) were at 749 bps on Friday - an all-time high, according to Markit. Since its yearlow of 309 in late January, it has therefore increased some 142%. According to according to Gavan Nolan, director of credit research at Markit, this implies a default probability of 49% over the next five years. A Nokia spokesman said improving cash flow was an important goal. "Nokia is implementing a decisive action plan to position our company for future growth and success," spokesman James Etheridge said. "The main focus of these actions is on lowering the company's costs, improving cash flow and maintaining a strong financial position." Nokia, which once ruled the mobile phone roost, was wrong footed by the rise of smartphones. And while it may have hoped the iPhone phenomenon was close to running its course, Apple last month said quarterly profit had almost doubled in the first quarter of 2012, quieting talk that its days of sharp growth were over. Meanwhile Nokia's response to the iPhone, the Lumia, has not so far demonstrated it can compete. "Nokia's Lumia was an attempt to catch up, but it was simply too little too late," said Nancy Utterback, credit strategist at Aviva Investors.