Conflicting pressures for Reserve Bank

Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler has an increasing number of moving parts to juggle in his assessment of monetary policy, with the kiwi dollar higher than forecast, a resurgent housing market and the impact of drought on economic output. Mr Wheeler will keep the official cash rate (OCR) at 2.5 percent when he releases his monetary policy statement (MPS) next Thursday, according to a Reuters survey of 19 economists. He would hike by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter and again in the first three months of 2014, according to the survey's median estmates. The latest MPS will likely include revised tracks for the trade-weighted index, interest rates, inflation and economic growth. The index was recently at 76.10 - well above the 73.1 average level the Reserve Bank forecast for the first quarter back in December and ensuring inflation remains subdued to the tradable sector. At the same time the housing market, one of the "pockets of pressure" Mr Wheeler identified three months ago, has continued to heat up, especially in Auckland and Christchurch. Click here to find out more! That's one of the reasons that investors will be keenly listening for more details on the make-up and timing of the use of macro-prudential tools, such as loan-to-value ratio restrictions, outlined in an Reserve Bank discussion paper this month. Mr Wheeler noted a rise in the share of high loan-to-value lending throughout 2012 in the Deember MPS. "Macro-prudential tools could help ease housing market pressures," said ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley. However they're only likely to have "a modest impact" compared to movements in the OCR. Outside of the housing market, Mr Wheeler has little need to worry about inflation. The consumer price index fell 0.2 percent in the final three months of 2012. Respondents to the Reserve Bank's March survey of expectations trimmed their view on consumer price inflation two years ahead to 2.17 percent from 2.27 percent in the January survey. The outlook for global growth has improved in the past three months, as the Reserve Bank of Australia noted this week but for New Zealand, the widening effects of late-season drought in the North Island poses a risk to gross domestic product.  3news