IEA sees stronger crude oil demand heading into 2014

The International Energy Agency (IEA), which comprises major oil consumers among industrialised nations, said Thursday that there appears to be a firming of demand in 2013 and prospects for greater oil demand growth as we head towards 2014. In its latest monthly Oil Market Report (OMR), the IEA now forecasts oil demand will grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) next year to around 92. 0 mb/d, and it noted it was upping its growth forecast for 2013 to 930,000 b/d, up 145,000 over the previous estimated. The IEA projected that oil demand should rise to 90.8 mb/d on average this year. Colder weather in Europe and in some industrialised countries was one of the factors for the upward revision on demand. A stronger global economy and a recovery in many consumer countries was also cited as important in the market predictions. The world economy should grow 3.3 percent this year and by 4.0 percent in 2014, but most of the increased demand is coming from non-industrialised and emerging economies. The IEA said there were "heightened risks" surrounding forecasts for both the world economy and oil consumption. Also, the Agency said that what now appears as a "bullish" outlook for demand in 2014 could be offset by greater production from non-OPEC countries next year, when these producers are expected to have their largest output increase since 2002. Non?OPEC supply is forecast to increase by 1.3 mb/d in 2014, higher than an upwardly revised 1.2 mb/d for 2013, the report indicated. In June, global oil output fell by 300,000 b/d to 91.2 mb/d as lower OPEC output effected market supply. Disruptions in Libya, Nigeria and Iraq accounted for most of the OPEC drop to 30.61 mb/d last month, the IEA said.