Aviation bodies see turbulent 2012 for airlines

Rising fuel prices and financial turmoil in Europe signal big problems for the international airline industry in 2012 and are likely to force a cutback in flights, according to two key aviation bodies. Global airline organisation IATA said that while passenger numbers on all international routes in January — usually a busy travel season -rose 5.7 per cent year on year, major uncertainties lay ahead. European air traffic body Eurocontrol, which oversees an estimated 40 per cent of world passenger and cargo routes, said it had cut its forecast for 2012 flight numbers to a decline of 1.3 per cent from growth of 2.5 per cent. The figures from Geneva-based IATA, the International Air Traffic Association, showed air cargo volume — a good indicator of the health of world trade -was down 8 per cent in January over the same month last year. Earlier this month IATA reported that in 2011 as a whole air traveller numbers rose by 6.9 per cent on international routes operated by its 240 members, who account for 84 per cent of world passenger traffic, while cargo fell 0.8 per cent over 2010. IATA director general Tony Tyler said the cargo decline appeared to be stabilising “albeit it at weak levels.” There was also hopeful news on business confidence which was having a positive impact on corporate travel. “However, airlines face two big risks: rising oil prices and Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. Both are hanging over the industry’s fortunes like a sword of Damocles,” Tyler said. At Brussels-based Eurocontrol, head of forecast and traffic analysis David Marsh said Europe’s economic weakness and the fuel price “have already had a major impact on the airlines, which have cut back on the number of flights harder and faster than we had expected.” Eurocontrol predicted a drop in flights from 9.8 million in 2011 to 9.7 million this year, which would be the second annual decline since the global financial crisis of 2009. Marsh said growth in numbers of flights landing in, taking off from, or flying over the vast Eurocontrol area was likely to resume slowly in 2013 but it would be 2014 before it got back to the all-time peak of 10 million achieved in 2008.