Brexit blow to Obama and US 'special relationship'

Britain's vote to leave the European Union was a severe blow to one of the United States' key alliances and a setback for its influence across the old continent.

But can Barack Obama leverage what remains of the "special relationship" to smooth its exit and limit the damage to Western security and the global economy?

The US president travelled to London during the referendum campaign to back his friend Prime Minister David Cameron's doomed campaign against Brexit.

And on Friday he was quick to defend the enduring "special relationship," a phrase coined by Winston Churchill in 1946 after the Allies' World War II victory.

Nevertheless, Washington analysts were unanimous that the shock result was a huge setback for the alliance and for US interests -- and urged Obama to help fix things.

Following the vote, Britain will have to negotiate its departure from the world's biggest trading bloc without triggering a domino effect of economic catastrophe.

After speaking to Cameron on Friday, Obama said he was "confident that the UK is committed to an orderly transition out of the EU."

But European leaders have warned that they will not give London an easy ride, fearing that a smooth Brexit will encourage other European powers to jump ship.

- Divides allies -

That would be counterproductive, warned Tom Wright of the Brookings Institution, if a stormy debate further disturbs markets and divides US allies in Europe.

"In the last few weeks European leaders have taken a tough line and said there won't be concessions, but that may change now that the vote has happened," he said. 

"I do think the US position will almost certainly and correctly be to try to make this as smooth as possible."

Wright did not downplay the scale of the harm Brexit would do to trans-Atlantic cooperation but said Obama could "mitigate" it by reaching out to France and Germany.

"The most important decisions will be taken in Berlin and in Paris," he told AFP in an interview.

"And if the US is going to engage these countries it will have to be at the leader level."

There is a lot of anger in Washington at what experts see as Cameron's unnecessary gamble on a referendum, but most hope the alliance will survive.

"Nothing will be served by pushing the UK away or by retaliating by diminishing the alliance," said Wright.

Jeffrey Rathke, a fellow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told AFP that the fundamentals of the alliance remain in place.

"The reason for the special relationship is basically because we have very similar interests and very similar ways of looking at the world," he said.

"However, if Britain's influence globally decreases then the US naturally has to find ways to compensate for that," he warned.

"The US will have to beef up its engagement with key European partners."

This analysis was shared by Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, who told reporters that Brexit was a harsh blow for the United States.

- 'Less special' -

"The net result will be the special relationship will be that much less special," he said.

"This essentially is a cloud without a silver lining when it comes to the UK itself, when it comes to Europe or when it comes to the United States. 

"On balance this will diminish order within Europe and arguably beyond."

So a disaster then, in the eyes of experts, but could Obama have done more to steer his ally through the mess of its own making?

Analysts like Dalibor Rohac of the American Enterprise Institute, pointed out that the would-be "Pacific president" had somewhat neglected European ties.

And Britain too, in the grip of austerity economics and fixated by referenda first on Scottish independence then on Brexit, has retreated from the world.

"Much of the UK's political clout was related to its ability to steer European policy," said Rohac. "That clout is gone once the UK leaves."

Source: AFP