More attacks likely, targeting anti-Daesh coalition states

The Paris attacks of November 13 may mark the start of a campaign of terror by jihadists targeting countries taking part in the coalition fighting the Islamic State group in Syria and Iraq, experts warn.
For the moment, the air strikes targeting IS strongholds in Syria and Iraq have not reached the Islamist group's leadership-in-hiding, and the campaign will need to be intensified in order to seriously weaken the network, they say.

"Daesh is putting roots down locally while expanding internationally," said Jean-Pierre Filiu, professor of Middle East studies at Sciences Po, the Paris School of International Affairs, using an Arabic acronym for the IS group.

In the weeks running up to the Paris attacks, which claimed 130 lives, the group pulled off a string of attacks including a double bombing in Ankara on October 10 that killed 103, an October 31 bomb which brought down a Russian plane in which 224 died, and a twin bombing in Beirut that killed 44.

"The sequence of attacks in Ankara, the Russian charter flight in Sinai, and Beirut and Paris is not a sign of weakness but the opposite," he said.

"In these sort of situations, Daesh's strength is in taking the initiative," he said.

"Until now, they have kept the initiative throughout... they could still surprise us again in the coming days. Their logic says they must strike again in Europe, as quickly as possible," he said.

"After having done it in Paris, they want to show they can do it again elsewhere.
"Look at the ease with which they crossed the borders, it's certainly not impossible."

- 'Paris then Rome' -

Intelligence Online, which monitors jihadist networks, reported Thursday that IS had been looking at six Western and Arab capitals.

"Several Arab intelligence services passed on information to their Western counterparts showing that six capitals were in Daesh's sights: Paris, London, Moscow, Cairo, Riyadh and Beirut," it said.

During a top-level IS meeting in June in the group's Iraqi 'capital' Mosul, regional leaders were ordered to put together a campaign of terror, it said.

For the area covering France, Spain and Italy, the leader is believed to be Belgian national Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the suspected ringleader of the Paris attacks who was killed Wednesday during a major French police raid in the north of the capital.

The jihadist movement's online English-language magazine Dabiq on Thursday published its 12th edition with a cover showing French rescuers under a headline reading: "Just terror."
"Eight knights brought Paris down on its knees after years of French conceit in the face of Islam," it crowed, promising that the Paris massacre was only the beginning.

Two anonymous jihadist groups issued fresh threats Friday in a video shot in Iraq called "Paris before Rome".

"Oh France of the cross, with the permission of Allah the all powerful we will bombard your monuments," they say.

"We have started with you and we will end with the White House which will be blackened by our fire."

- Take the gloves off -

Dozens of countries are involved in the US-led coalition conducting air strikes on IS targets, among them Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Turkey, with Russia running its own campaign of bombing.

But for the moment, the campaign has not managed to weaken IS, experts say. And although it may have lost people, its leadership has been careful to take precautions.

"They had obviously anticipated the bombings," said Filiu.

While France says it has bombed the group's Syrian stronghold of Raqa, "Daesh's leadership is certainly not being bombed in Raqa. They are safe, in hiding."

In order to have a real impact on the group, there needs to be a "serious air campaign" which is 10 or 20 times more intense than the one taking place at the moment, said Australian expert David Kilcullen.

"We're treating IS like a terrorist organisation, trying to target individual leaders and weapons posts," he told AFP.

"We should be targeting them as an enemy state. That's what they are. We need be knocking out the power, the water supply, their control of oil fields and refineries, the cities they control," he said.

"I don't think there's an alternative. Paris shows us it's not containable."
Source: AFP