Leading think tank warns of leadership vacuum

A global leadership vacuum is emerging, according to the influential London-based think tank, the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS). Chief Executive, John Chipman, observed a “variety of ‘black swan’ events that took place this last year, including uprisings across the Arab world, a new war in Libya, a nuclear crisis in Japan, natural disasters in other continents too and all this in the midst of a continuing economic crisis in the West at a time of vigorous economic growth in Asia that appeared strongly to support a shift in geopolitical weight to the East.” In contrast to the optimism of many commentators, Chipman warned that the Arab Spring has been far from a fait accompli, with events continuing to develop across the Arab world, even among the earliest revolutions, such as in Egypt. “The last year will be remembered as the year of the Arab Awakening and of its wider consequences. It will not be remembered necessarily as the year in which democracy spread. The transitions that have taken place so far remain half-baked and the promise of more democratic outcomes remains laced with the risk that sects, military institutions or other groups might still hijack the process.” However, Chipman believes that there is increasing international catharsis in solving global problems. “Abroad’ has become a synonym for ‘quagmire’ in the American political consciousness. ‘Home’ is the priority for which most political capital must be spent. The decisions taken in respect of Afghanistan, in effect to drop the ambitious counter-insurgency strategy, withdraw forces and prioritise a political solution, will be seen as signalling the end of a decade-long US interventionist policy.” In addition, Chipman thinks that European states, such as France and the UK, who led the Libyan intervention, are unlikely to have an appetite for further international leadership. “The appetite in the West ten years after the 9/11 attacks to engage in active forward and anticipatory self-defence is lower than it has been for a generation. The case for liberal interventionism can still be made, but the cry has to be loud and the cause irrefutably perfect for it to be answered positively. Other societies are unlikely to promote it any time soon. For proof one need only look at the votes in the UN Security Council on the Libya operation, where so many of the pretenders to permanent membership of the Security Council abstained.” According to Chipman, this absence of global leadership is a major problem, which provides a major vacuum in the international system. “The room for mavericks and rogues to manoeuvre for their own gain is thus expanded. Who will come to the rescue if these start doing real damage, and how effectively, is anybody’s guess. Perhaps the variety of possible strategic leaders will prove to be a blessing in disguise.”