Argentine vote to bring curtain down on Kirchner era

A month ahead of presidential elections Argentina's two leading candidates are racing to a finish line that will end President Cristina Kirchner and her late husband Nestor's 12-year dynasty.

One is promising minor economic tweaks, the other offering radical change. Either way, with Kirchner unable to run again because she has already served successive terms, there will be a new president in Argentina.

Daniel Scioli, whose has campaigned to maintain the status quo -- with exception to a few economic and diplomatic changes -- is ahead in polls by nearly 10 percentage points, leading rival Mauricio Macri, the mayor of Buenos Aires, who promises more drastic measures.

Both candidates come from the business world and well-established families. And both are hoping to take office at the end of Kirchner's eight-year rule, which follows that of her husband, who served as president from 2003 to 2007.

For an outright winner in the October 25 election, the candidate needs 40 percent of the votes and a 10-point lead ahead of the runner-up. Otherwise, it will head to a runoff on November 22.

The 58-year-old Scioli, a former vice president under Nestor Kirchner, is governor of Buenos Aires province, a sprawling area which accounts for nearly 40 percent of the country's voters.

From that office the power-boating fanatic, who lost his right arm in a 1989 boat racing accident, has been a vocal supporter of leftist Cristina Kirchner.

In stark contrast, conservative business favorite Macri, 56, made his name as chairman of the Boca Juniors football team.

Macri is especially popular with those nostalgic for go-go free-market economic policy in Argentina.

He hopes to rejuvenate an economy that is sputtering after a decade of strong growth. To do this, he says he will eliminate currency exchange controls and import restrictions, among other reforms.

Far behind the two front-runners is center-right lawmaker Sergio Massa, who used to support Kirchner but broke with her.

- Currency devaluation expected -

Whoever is sworn in on December 10 inherits the third-largest economy in Latin America, one that is saddled with 30 percent inflation and little growth, but rich in natural resources.

One of the biggest challenges will be to end a drawn-out legal dispute with creditors holding Argentine bonds and demanding payment at face value rather than at a discount as others did in a debt restructuring in 2010.

This would restore confidence among investors -- Argentina needs fresh money after dipping deep into its reserves to finance a policy to prop up the value of the peso and run a budget deficit at more than five percent of GDP.

A currency devaluation seems inevitable. That means a drop in purchasing power for Argentines, who are used to roller coaster rides in their economy.

But so as not to scare people off ahead of the election, candidates are keeping their cards close to their chest.

- Influence of Kirchner -

After enduring economic crisis in 2001 and 2002, Argentina enjoyed a boom decade fueled by exports of its agricultural bounty.

But the good times came to an end in late 2013 as commodity prices started to fall and the red-hot economy of Brazil, Argentina's main trading partner, began to cool.

Last week, Macri attempted to assuage the fears of Argentines who receive state assistance: "I am not going to take anything away from you. Those who receive social assistance will keep getting it, but furthermore they will have the possibility of working."

Pollster Isonomia said the most popular measures taken under Kirchner rule are subsidies to families and the nationalization of energy giant YPF.

Political scientist Pablo Knopoff said the election will mark a break with 12 years of Kirchner rule and the degree of change will depend on how much influence Kirchner might wield over Scioli if he becomes president.

"Scioli is going to press ahead with Cristina's policy. That could be a very productive transition until Cristina comes back," said Estela de Carlotto, a Kirchner supporter.

Kirchner has served two terms but cannot do another consecutively. But under the constitution she could run again in 2019.

Source: AFP