Can Iran and the West agree a deal

"Can Iran and the world's major powers agree a deal that averts all-out war over Tehran's nuclear programme?", this is the big question the Financial Times newspaper raised Friday. Iran meets with senior diplomats from six nations in Istanbul today and the question is again at the top of the international security agenda, the main business daily in Europe said in an analysis. Many will hope that a deal can be struck - if not this weekend then certainly in the next few months - that averts the terrible spectre of an Israeli or US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, it said. But those who have followed the often tortuous negotiations between Iran and the international community know that hope must be tempered by scepticism and fear. When Saeed Jalili, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, arrives at talks on Friday, he will be familiar with most of the diplomats in the room. Dr Jalili and the six political directors - from the US, Russia, China, UK, France and Germany - have met many times. They will not finalise any agreement this weekend, but the six will scrutinise Dr Jalili's every word to determine whether Iran is ready to negotiate seriously at a more substantive meeting later this year, the FT added. The six powers have two broad goals. First, they want Iran to agree to "confidence building" measures that could quickly defuse mounting tension over its nuclear programme, which many believe is aimed at building a bomb. In the long run, a comprehensive solution to the stand-off will be needed, one which could see Iran coming under pressure to give up its uranium enrichment programme altogether, the paper suggested. "But the west's immediate goal is to persuade Iran to take quick steps that halt - and even reverse - progress towards a bomb. The steps Iran might take could involve shipping out of the country a large proportion of its stock of more highly enriched uranium, which - at the 20 per cent concentration - is very close to weapons grade. It will also come under pressure to halt all operations at a highly protected enrichment site at Fordow, where much of the US and Israeli concern is focused". "If Iran takes these confidence building steps then it stops the clock on Israel's military plans," says a western diplomat. "We will then have the time we need to forge a deeper settlement over issues like the basic right to enrichment." There is a second aspect to these talks. If Iran is to make meaningful concessions, it must do so quickly. In the autumn of 2009, Iran entered into protracted negotiations that lasted more than a year before collapsing in early 2011, the daily went on. The time for talk is now far more limited, it warned. Barack Obama, US president, appears to have persuaded Israel to refrain from carrying out a unilateral attack on Iran's programme in this US presidential election year. But if Iran has failed to implement serious confidence building measures by the start of the next US presidential term in January, it is hard to see how Israel could then be held back, the FT cautioned. "So will Iran go for a deal? There are grounds for optimism. First, US and European Union sanctions on Iran's oil exports and banking sector are tighter than they have ever been and will ratchet up further in July. The Iranian economy is being seriously squeezed. Iran must come up with big concessions if it wants such sanctions scaled back. Second, for all its intransigence, Iran has shown a willingness to negotiate in the past", the daily concluded.