Dutch provincial elections crucial for national politics

In the provincial elections to be held on Wednesday, voters in the 12 Dutch provinces will choose their highest representatives. The members of the provincial councils determine the policy of their own province and deal with cases that are too small for the national government and too big for the municipalities, like regional nature, infrastructure and spatial planning.
In recent weeks however, provincial issues or provincial politicians were hardly mentioned in a campaign dominated by the national party leaders. That is due to the Dutch electoral system which dates back to 1848. Since then the members of the provincial councils also elect the members of the senate, "de Eerste Kamer," on May 26 this year. So, indirectly the outcome of the provincial elections will also decide on the composition of the senate.
The political balance in the new senate will be of great importance for the political power of the current cabinet of VVD (Liberals) and PvdA (Labor). The second cabinet of Prime Minister Mark Rutte came to power in November 2012 on the basis of a majority of 79 out of the 150 seats in the house of representatives, "de Tweede Kamer," which has been reduced to 77 after two Labor members started their own movement.
In the senate, the two government parties are in a minority. Together they have 30 of the 75 seats and therefore they had to find supporting parties, because for law-making in the Netherlands a majority is needed in both the house of representatives and the senate.
VVD and PvdA found supporters in D66 (Democrats), the CU and SGP (Christian parties). Thanks to the support of these parties the cabinet could implement important law reforms, in healthcare, pensions, employment and education. Most scheduled law reforms of the second cabinet of Rutte have already passed through both houses of parliament, but for instance a revision of the tax system is still waiting.
VVD and PvdA would like to continue until the next general elections, scheduled for March 2017, but both parties are not performing well in the polls for the forthcoming provincial elections. If the government lose their majority of VVD, PvdA, D66, SGP and CU in the senate, the position of the government will become more unstable.
Last week the VVD of PM Rutte suffered damage by the resignation of Minister of Justice and Security Ivo Opstelten and the State Secretary for Justice Fred Teeven. The two abdicated because they gave inadequate and incorrect information about a deal of the public prosecutor with a drug lord fifteen years ago. In addition, claims of erroneous declarations and corruption caused the departure of VVD MP Mark Verheijen from parliament.
Minister for Health, Welfare and Sport Edith Schippers (VVD) suggested that the news was an orchestrated attack on the VVD performed to bring the party into disrepute. "If a remittance of fifteen years ago comes to light one week before elections, it is my conclusion that this is not without a reason," Schippers told newspaper De Telegraaf. But she did not offer any evidence.
In the latest poll by TV news show EenVandaag coalition parties VVD and PvdA and the supporting parties D66, CU and SGP are on 34 seats in the senate. VVD would get 11 representatives in the senate (-5 compared to the last senate elections in 2011), Labor are on 7 (-7) and the other three parties are jointly on 16. The five parties are thus, according to the polls, four seats short of a majority in the senate.
The national party leaders realize the importance of the elections and showed themselves on TV and on the streets to campaign.
The new senate will stay on until 2019 and thus also have impact on the political relations after the next general elections in 2017. It will make clear which political coalitions are possible and which parties will have most power. Therefore it was not surprising that in recent weeks provincial issues were hardly mentioned and national leaders dominated the debates.