Dutch vote leaves coalition facing uncertain future

Dutch voters punished premier Mark Rutte's ruling coalition in provincial elections on Wednesday, exit polls said, leaving the Liberal-Labour government facing an uncertain future and scrambling for partners to pass reforms in the Senate.
The coalition of Rutte's Liberal VVD and the PvdA Labour party was predicted to lose four and six seats respectively, shattering their previously fragile majority that relied on the progressive D66 and two small Christian parties to pass bills in the 75-seat Senate.
Just 49 percent of voters turned out to elect the 570 officials who will in May decide who sits in the Dutch upper house for the next four years, well into the next government's mandate.
The predicted result means the coalition must find a sixth partner, possibly the Green party or the Christian Democrat CDA, which has so far refused to back the government, or face paralysis in the upper house.
"This is a problem for the coalition," said Paul Scheffer, European studies professor at Amsterdam and Tilburg Universities.
"It's going to be very tricky finding a sixth party willing to support the ruling coalition in the Senate," he told AFP.
The Senate composition will be crucial to the next government -- whether voted in at elections scheduled for 2017 or if the cabinet collapses before then.
"I am afraid that this is perhaps the beginning of the end for Rutte's coalition," said Scheffer.
Rutte's People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) has been hit by a series of recent scandals including over a deal made with a drug baron 15 years ago which last week forced the resignation of VVD justice minister Ivo Opstelten and his deputy Fred Teeven.
Despite his headline-grabbing anti-Islam rhetoric, Geert Wilders' PVV party was predicted to lose two seats in the Senate, where in any case he will not play an important role in the polls as he is still considered politically toxic after bringing down the government in 2012.
The leadership of the Labour PvdA party may see changes after the vote, after the party was seen to have been punished by voters for supporting Liberal-driven austerity measures and budget cuts aimed at getting the Dutch deficit below European Union norms.
"Serious questions will be asked about Labour's performance in these elections and heads may roll," said Scheffer.
The CDA refused to be drawn into on its possible key role if it backed the ruling coalition in the Senate.
"I'm very satisfied with the outcome for now," said CDA deputy parliamentary leader Mona Keijzer.
"The CDA will continue to support good suggestions by the cabinet and be against bad ones."
Provincial officials will decide on the Senate's makeup on May 26.