EU-Russia stand-off dominates East Europe summit

An EU summit to cap years of effort to bring ex-Soviet states into the Western fold opens with its ambitions dented Thursday after Ukraine, the biggest prize, balked at the last moment under Russian pressure. Kiev's surprise decision to scrap a landmark political and trade accord with the European Union just days before has set off a war of words between East and West reminiscent of the Cold War and sparked some of the biggest protests in Ukraine in a decade. Brussels insists the deal is "still on the table" despite the rebuff and Kiev says it could even still sign it, but the prospects for compromise at the two-day summit appear limited, with the fate of detained former Ukraine premier Yulia Tymoshenko a major sticking point. Tymoshenko herself meanwhile called on EU leaders to drop their demands for her release if President Viktor Yanukovych, who is due to attend, takes "a positive decision" on the accord. "I passionately ask you to sign the agreement on Friday without any hesitation and conditions including those that are related to my release," Tymoshenko said in a message late Wednesday. "It's necessary to free Ukraine. That means it's necessary to sign the agreement if Yanukovych agrees to it," she said. Tymoshenko's release -- which some EU critics think was a step too far for Kiev -- is part of a set of conditions sought by the EU in return for an Association Agreement which could lead ultimately to Ukraine's EU membership. Keen to show Moscow's former communist satellites in Eastern Europe that the summit matters, almost all EU leaders will attend, including the "Big Three" of Britain, France and Germany. The accent is on the future, they argue, rather than the past. "We should overcome the mentality 'either us or them.' The Cold War is over," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, admonishing Russian President Vladimir Putin to look at the wider picture. Putin has in turn advised "our friends in Brussels, my personal good friends in the European Commission, to hold back on the sharp words." The Eastern Partnership summit also includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Belarus, aiming to strike trade and aid deals with the EU but vast Ukraine, with its 45 million people, industry and farms, is the major prize. To make matters worse, Brussels has also seen Armenia, Azerbaijan and Belarus turn back towards a Moscow which has reminded all of how much they stand to lose if they make the wrong choice. Only Moldova and Georgia -- which fought a 2008 war with Russia -- are now ready to sign up with the EU and even Tbilisi after a change of government no longer seems so hostile to Moscow. For the moment, EU officials continue to push the deal and its merits with Kiev while acknowledging the problem with Russia. EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fuele "failure sign the association agreement will delay investment and economic modernisation in Ukraine," adding Brussels is ready to resume talks on signing "as soon as Ukraine is ready." The prospects however are not good. "Russia too would benefit from a prosperous Ukraine," EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht told the Germany Handelsblatt daily Thursday. "But Moscow clearly does not want any country in its front yard having an independent policy towards the EU." "Without an agreement with Ukraine at this summit the Eastern Partnership will be less impressive, there will be less enthusiasm," said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius. "The momentum may be lost." Yanukovych says the EU offered insufficient compensation to offset what Ukraine might lose in economic ties with Russia. Brussels says that after months of arm-twisting by Moscow, Ukraine's exports to Russia dropped 25 percent, some firms registering even a 40 percent fall. Ukraine is also heavily dependent on Russia's natural gas. Diplomats fear Moscow could also pressure smaller Georgia and Moldova in the months to come and a final statement is expected to offer a veiled warning to Putin to avoid meddling. The EU has come under stiff criticism for its handling of negotiations with Yanukovych, seen as having played both sides in his own interest of winning elections in 2015. "We were so intent on coming to a common policy that we forgot to look at was happening in Ukraine," said an Eastern European diplomat close to the negotiations who asked not to be identified. Some analysts say the EU went too far in insisting that Yanukovych release his arch-enemy, Tymoshenko. "The Ukraine case will make many governments in the region and elsewhere think twice about their dealings with Moscow," said Carnegie Europe director Jan Techau.