Gaddafi's death opens Libya to infighting

The pursuit of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi kept Libyan rebels together under the NATO-backed National Transitional Council flag but his death opens the way for a much-delayed power struggle within the disparate coalition now ruling Libya. The more secularist individuals and groups in the NTC are seen to be under pressure from Islamists, a trend predicted for long but not dealt with in any great detail by NATO strategists as they concentrated on securing military results to help catapult the rebels to power. With Gadhafi off the scene, political differences within the NTC are becoming more pronounced but European responses to the inevitable complexities are few and far between. The most notable divisions are between the secularists, who fronted the NTC during the months of its formation and consolidation after NATO began its bombardments in February, and entrenched Islamists who kept a low profile throughout that campaign. The uncertainty now is about who will emerge on top. Emile Hokayem, senior fellow for Regional Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London, said Libya could face an unstable outlook for its immediate future if NTC Chairman Mustafa Abdul Jalil and Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril quit, as they said they would once Gadhafi was gone. "Both Abdul Jalil and NTC Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril have announced their desire to resign once Gadhafi was gone," Hokayem said. "The two did a decent job at steering Libya through difficult time but they were criticized by other Libyan factions for their previous association with Gadhafi and their alleged power ambitions. "Jibril in particular has become the bete noire of several Islamist figures who resent his secularism and methods," Hokayem added, in a strategic comment posted on his blog and sent by e-mail to United Press International. "Gadhafi's death will hopefully help Libya to turn the page and pursue in earnest a transition that seemed to have gone off tracks in recent weeks. What matters most now is the tone of the new Libyan authorities. "Cheering Gadhafi's death is one thing but what is more important is to embrace the language and spirit of reconciliation," Hokayem said. So far, he said, Jalil has spoken of reconciliation, not vengeance. But the defeat of Gadhafi forces in Sirte and Bani Walid took longer and was bloodier than expected, exacerbating internal divides. "Many Gadhafi supporters somehow believed their leader could still come back. Now, they will have to accept that their future and well-being require that they accept the new realities and join the political game. The question is whether the NTC and its successors will do their utmost to allow them to do so." Hokayem said much now depended on whether the two leaders choose to stay or leave their positions. "The departure of these two leaders from power could destabilize Libya if there is no consensual government in place to take over. So far, various Libyan factions have refused to disarm and let the NTC be fully in charge of the country's internal order. This reflects deep mistrust between the different regions. "One often hears of rivalries between Tripoli and Benghazi, between Zintan fighters and Misurata militia. Reconciliation and disarmament must go hand in hand, and any new government must have this as a priority ahead of elections," Hokayem said. Amnesty International asked that Gadhafi's death be investigated to determine if a war crime was committed. Video footage that emerged Thursday appears to show that Gadhafi was captured alive by anti-Gadhafi troops in Sirte. "If Colonel al-Gadhafi was killed after his capture, it would constitute a war crime and those responsible should be brought to justice," Amnesty International Senior Director Claudio Cordone said. "Investigating whether or not his death was a war crime might be unpopular. However, the NTC must apply the same standards to all, affording justice even to those who categorically denied it to others. "Bringing al-Gadhafi to trial would have finally given his numerous victims answers as to why they were targeted and an opportunity for justice and reparations." Jibril said Gadhafi had been fatally wounded in the head amid cross-fire. But other NTC officials told the media that the former leader bled to death en route to the hospital, or that he was killed by fighters after capture. Amnesty International said Gadhafi's death was a reminder of the extrajudicial killings that the fallen regime was notorious for and called on the NTC to move away from such practices and enforce the rule of law. Financial services firm J. P. Morgan, in a comment for investors, said an early restoration of security and disarmament of thousands of militia were urgent challenges for Libya. But its analysts said an early disarmament of all the militia groups threatening security in Libya was unlikely in the first year of the new government.