Leftists target power in austerity-weary Lithuania

Lithuania's leftwing and populist opposition parties braced for victory in Sunday's run-off elections, two weeks after austerity-weary voters evicted a centre-right coalition in a first round of polling. Sunday's race saw the Baltic state's leftwing populist Labour party and its centre-left allies the Social Democrats seeking to cement their first-round win in the face of slim public enthusiasm. Turnout was set to be well below the level of almost 53 percent in the October 14 first round. "I would expect the final turnout could be around 37 percent," Zenonas Vaigauskas, chairman of the Central Electoral Commission, told AFP after polls closed at 8:00 pm (1800 GMT). "Sometimes voters don't find the candidates they voted for in the first round and think none of the two candidates can represent their interests," he explained. Results were expected around midnight (2200 GMT), he added. On October 14, Labour and the Social Democrats beat the Conservatives of Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius, who pushed through draconian spending cuts as the nation of three million was battered by one of the world's deepest recessions. The first round settled the race in 73 of the 141 seats in parliament. Labour, which came top, and the Social Democrats opened coalition talks with the right-wing populist Order and Justice party. Social Democrat leader Algirdas Butkevicius is widely tipped to become prime minister. "We are a traditional party with quite extensive political experience, we've been in government," he said Sunday. The two parties pledge to mend ties with Soviet-era master Moscow and raise the minimum wage, while the Social Democrats aim to introduce progressive income tax. But analysts say sweeping changes to economic policy are unlikely, given budgetary constraints. Butkevicius, finance minister in a previous Social Democrat-led government, cultivates an image for prudent economic stewardship. Even if Labour stays top, its leader Viktor Uspaskich is highly unlikely to become premier. The Russian-born ex-minister, member of the European Parliament and businessman -- who made his fortune importing gas and producing dill pickles -- is locked in a long-running party funding probe by Lithuanian prosecutors and tax authorities. "I never say never, but his chances are minimal," said Aine Ramonaite of the Institute for International Relations and Political Science in Vilnius. Order and Justice is also controversial, being run by impeached ex-president and former stunt pilot Rolandas Paksas. Labour's first-round seat tally was 18 and the Social Democrats', 16, while Order and Justice earned six -- a total of 40, meaning they may need a fourth ally to hit a parliamentary majority of 71. Labour is facing a vote-buying inquiry that voided the first-round results in one constituency, forcing a re-run in coming months. The Conservatives earned 13 seats in the first round and their Liberal Movement governing allies, seven. Casting his ballot Sunday, Kubilius warned that whoever won power would be watched, to ensure they "keep up the good work that we started". Lithuania's parties have struggled repeatedly to form stable coalitions. The outgoing Conservative-led administration swung between a parliamentary majority and minority at various points during four years in power -- although Kubilius was the only premier to survive a full term since Lithuania seceded from the Soviet Union in 1990. In the 2008 general election, voters heeded the Conservative message that a Social Democrat-led coalition had left the country ill-prepared as growth -- which spiraled upward after European Union entry in 2004 -- ground to a halt amid the global economic crisis. Kubilius was also premier in 1999-2000 when Lithuania was lashed by the economic meltdown in neighbouring Russia. But the 2009 crisis was far deeper, as Lithuania's economy shrank by 14.8 percent. His government brought in austerity measures much wider in scope than those adopted in western members of the 27-nation EU, avoiding a currency devaluation or international bailout. Growth returned in 2010, at 1.4 percent, before hitting 6.0 percent in 2011, but too few voters felt the benefits, analysts said. The pace slowed to a forecast 2.5 percent this year. "I'm hoping that the next four years will bring a better life," highway worker Kazimieras Namenkevicius told AFP as he cast his ballot. But retiree Aleksandras Bylatis said he was far from upbeat: "I'm not expecting anything from the new government."