Lithuanian voters set to evict conservatives

Lithuania braced Saturday for a general election in which austerity-weary voters look set to evict the Baltic state's centre-right government in favour of the leftwing opposition, despite an economic recovery. Sunday's polls are expected to hand power to the centre-left Social Democrats and the leftwing populist Labour party, ending four years of rule by the Conservatives and their Liberal allies. The Conservatives are expected to come fourth behind the populist Order and Justice party. Social Democrat leader Algirdas Butkevicius, a former finance minister, is expected to become premier in a coalition with Labour. The left pledges to raise the minimum wage and introduce progressive income tax. Butkevicius has nonetheless striven to underline his image for economic prudence, having quit the finance ministry in 2005 because the then Social Democrat-led government did not close the gap between spending and revenue. He also says he will stick to plans to adopt the euro, potentially by 2015, meaning his room for manoeuvre would be limited by the needed to meet criteria on public finances and inflation -- long breached by most existing members, but a hurdle for would-be entrants. Unfazed by the eurozone's woes, Lithuania has argued it makes sense to be anchored in the same currency bloc as major trade partners. Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius -- who beat the Social Democrats in the last election in 2008 -- failed to reap political rewards as Lithuania emerged from one of the world's deepest recessions. The 2008 vote also hinged on the economy, as Kubilius blasted the government for not reining in breakneck growth fuelled by credit and wage hikes, and failing for prepare Lithuania for the global crisis. Kubilius was seen as a safe pair of hands, having been premier in 1999-2000 when Lithuania was lashed by the economic meltdown in neighbouring Russia, a major trade partner. But the 2009 crisis went far beyond that slump during his previous stint, as the economy shrank by 14.8 percent. The Kubilius government launched biting spending cuts far beyond those of embattled western members of the European Union, which Lithuania joined in 2004. "We have taken historic steps, such as consolidating our financial system at the height of the crisis and to achieve energy independence," Kubilius said in a televised debate. "We must continue them." Lithuania's recovery began in 2010, with output expanding by 1.4 percent, before increasing to 6.0 percent in 2011. But with Lithuania vulnerable to crisis in the eurozone, the government predicts a slowdown to 2.5 percent this year and a rate of 3.0 in 2013. "People are fed up with the politics of austerity. The current recovery is too late and not significant enough," said Tomas Janeliunas, head of the political desk at Lithuanian weekly IQ. Gloom has driven a rise in emigration to western Europe, which still seems an option despite its economic woes. Official data show the population at its lowest in decades, falling by September to 2.98 million. In 2001, it was almost 3.5 million. Political cynicism, driven by corruption scandals, is traditional in Lithuania, which broke free from the Soviet Union in 1990 after five decades under Moscow. Discontent has fuelled support for a new anti-graft movement, Way of Courage. Spun out of anger over an alleged judicial cover-up of a paedophile ring, it is expected to win a handful of seats in the 141-member parliament. "I'm going to vote for this party. I see injustice every day," said Laisvydas Liaudauskas, 25. The Social Democrats and Labour also pledge to "reset" ties with Moscow. Tensions have spiked as Vilnius locks horns with Russian energy giant Gazprom, accusing it of abusing its position as Lithuania's sole supplier to set above-market prices. The Kubilius government has striven to diversify energy supplies, amid problems since the 2009 closure of Lithuania's only nuclear power plant, a Soviet-era facility shut under the terms of its EU entry. In tandem with Sunday's election, a non-binding referendum is being held on plans to build a new atomic plant by 2020.