Military expert: Elimination of Syria chemical arsenal to put pressure on Egypt

Egypt could be one of the biggest losers from a proposed US-Russian deal aimed at eliminating Syria's chemical weapons stockpiles, an Egyptian military expert asserted on Tuesday. Under a framework agreement hammered out by the US and Russia on Saturday, Syria must fully disclose all information about its chemical weapons arsenal within one week. Syrian chemical stockpiles must then be entirely eliminated before mid-2014, according to the agreement's terms. The deal temporarily averted the possibility of immediate US military action against the Bashar al-Assad regime in response to an alleged chemical attack near Damascus on August 21, in which more than 1,400 people were killed. Damascus, for its part, denies responsibility for the alleged attack. Syria has also voiced its readiness to join the global Chemical Weapons Convention, with the United Nations announcing that Syria would come under the treaty as of October 14. This would leave Egypt as the only Arab nation not to have signed on to the treaty, along with Somalia, which has lacked an effective central government for the past 20 years. "Syria had been part of the Arab strategy upon which Egypt was relying to stay out of the convention," retired Egyptian brigadier-general Safwat al-Zayat told Anadolu Agency by phone. "Now with Syria joining the treaty, international pressures – especially from the West – will mount for Egypt to join," he added. Egypt and Syria have long rejected calls to sign on to the treaty, citing a similar stance by Israel. But now, says al-Zayat, Israel will have no problem joining the anti-chemical weapons treaty, since Israel possesses a nuclear arsenal – representing a much more formidable deterrent. "In this case, Israel will sacrifice its chemical arsenal if this means Egyptian and Syrian chemical stockpiles will also be eliminated," he said. Israel signed the Chemical Weapons Convention in 1993, but the Knesset (Israel's parliament) never ratified it. Ever since, the self-proclaimed Jewish state has refused to receive any international inspection teams. Egypt, meanwhile, has said it would only join the treaty once Israel does. Al-Zayat said he expected the United States to pressure Israel to join the treaty, especially after a recently-leaked CIA document revealed that Israel had secretly built its own chemical and biological weapons stockpiles decades ago. According to the document, US surveillance satellites in 1982 detected "a probable CW [chemical weapons] nerve agent production facility and storage facility... at the Dimona Sensitive Storage Area in the Negev Desert." The CIA document adds: "Other CW production is believed to exist within a well-developed Israeli chemical industry." "While we cannot confirm whether the Israelis possess lethal chemical agents," the document goes on, "several indicators lead us to believe that they have available to them at least persistent and non-persistent nerve agents, a mustard agent, and several riot-control agents." Israel is also widely believed to possess a nuclear weapons arsenal, but has pursued a policy of so-called "strategic ambiguity," neither confirming nor denying its existence.