Nepal risks political chaos over constitution

Having won an extension to do in three months what it failed to manage in three years, Nepal's parliament has only deferred a crisis that threatens the Himalayan nations's fragile peace process. Elected in 2008 after a decade of civil war between the government and Maoist insurgents, the 601-member parliament, or Constituent Assembly, was given a two-year mandate to write a new constitution. But even after a one-year extension granted in 2010, the country's bickering political parties were unable to reach a consensus on the new charter -- meant to pave the way for fresh elections and usher in a new social and political order after centuries of inequality. Facing a constitutional crisis, political leaders agreed late last month to a further three-month extension and downgraded the task to just hammering out a first draft for the public to see. But analysts believe the chances of producing a working document are slim, and warn that Nepal is teetering on the brink of political chaos that could permanently derail the peace process begun when the war ended in 2006. Krishna Khanal, a political science professor at Kathmandu's Tribhuvan University, believes parliament's failure to meet the new August 31 deadline could result in its collapse and a return to authoritarian rule. "A power vacuum and a struggle for power will ensue," he told AFP. Khanal envisaged a scenario where President Ram Baran Yadav, whose current role is largely ceremonial, could make a play for power. "But I don't think his party (Nepali Congress) would back him, and in that case, the Maoists are likely to take over," he said. At the heart of the rift between the largest party in parliament, the Maoists, and the opposition Nepali Congress is the integration of around 19,000 Maoist combatants into the national security forces -- a key part of the peace process. In a policy paper published this month, the Martin Chautari organisation, a Kathmandu-based think-tank, said resolving the integration issue and a host of other constitutional roadblocks remained "politically challenging". In the absence of any agreement on such fundamental aspects of the peace process, "it is difficult to gauge the exact gains of the extension other than averting an immediate political crisis", the paper said. The first extension of the Constituent Assembly in 2010 was followed by a crippling, eight-month leadership vacuum, during which lawmakers held 16 failed attempts to elect a new prime minister. Over the entire one-year extension period, the full Constituent Assembly met just eight times for a total period of 95 minutes. The paralysis has fuelled public anger in what is one of the world's poorest nations -- all a far cry from the euphoria and optimism that followed the end of the civil war and the abolition of the unpopular monarchy. Stunted economic growth has forced many to seek work overseas, and thousands of Nepalese have taken to the streets in recent days to protest against the lack of progress in delivering the constitution. "There's a lot of frustration. People expect to see significant improvement. Not only the common people but the young leaders are also frustrated," said Anagha Neelakantan, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group. Opinion over the strategy of the powerful Maoists is divided, with some such as Neelakantan still hopeful that the former rebels remain committed to the constitutional process. "The Maoist party is not opting out of the democratic process, it is in the middle of a transformation," she said. While stressing that "compromise was possible," Neelakantan said the new three-month deadline would be hard to meet. "There are too many moving pieces at this point, and not enough time to assemble them," she said. Tilak Pathak, a political writer for Nagarik newspaper, argued that the Maoist participation in parliament is largely cosmetic and aimed at consolidating an urban power base. "The Maoists may seem accommodating but they haven't given up the communist model. They might propose a parliamentary election with their combatants intact," Pathak said. "The differences between these parties have become sharper. The Nepalese people may never get a secular and inclusive constitution because the politicians think they will gain by prolonging the transition," he warned.