Opinion polls predict victory for Spain's conservative party

Opinion polls ahead of Sunday's general election in Spain predict a clear victory for the right-wing Popular Party (PP). Projections were made by the Center for Sociological Research in Spain last month, which said the PP would become the country's main political force in all levels of government - national, local and in autonomous regions. The poll gave the PP a landslide victory with a range of 190 to 195 members of parliament (MPs), 74 more than the ruling center-left Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) who are projected to obtain between 116 and 121 representatives. Analysts say the PSOE has showcased itself as a serious party capable of forming a government, but not of making radical proposals and changes. The PSOE candidate Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba is a serious politician, reliable and effective without being excessively populist. With his roots going back to the old guard of Felipe Gonzalez (historical socialist leader), he has maintained a respectable image in a difficult situation. For his part, the current Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has been inactive during the campaign because party leadership consider him a hindrance rather than an asset. This is due to the budget cuts made by his government in the wake of the European debt crisis that alienated many traditional PSOE voters. The opposition leader and the most likely new prime minister, Mariano Rajoy has also maintained a low profile, trying not to reveal a conservative reform program that may result in future social conflicts. The only televised debate between the two candidates evoked a tepid response due to their apparent lack of passion. Neither the debate nor their campaigns showed that candidates had any new solutions to tackling the economic crisis. All forecasts predict that the third largest player after the elections will be Catalan nationalist party CIU (Convergencia and Unio). The party benefits from an electoral law that gives it greater representation in regional parties. However, all indications are that the PP will not need CIU support to form a government. Spanish general elections, to be held on Nov 20, is also expected to thrust several smaller parties into the spotlight, giving them a bigger say in the next government. The United Left, who are appealing to dissatisfied former PSOE supporters, may win eight seats. Regional forces such as the Catalan Republican Left, the Canary Coalition and the Galician Nationalist Bloc may also win two seats each. The new Basque nationalist party Amaiur is also expected to be represented in parliament for the first time with three seats. This is symbolic of a new era of peace after ETA recently renounced its violent ways. Amaiur will compete with the more conservative Basque Nationalist Party for the greater share of the Basque nationalist vote. Two new parties may be represented in parliament for the first time: Asturias, a splinter faction from the PP and the ecologist coalition Compromis-Equo. Observers says the election forecasts do not reflect a rise in popularity of Spain's right wing, but instead a show of disapproval of how the PSOE responded to the European debt crisis. Some say the party has suffered from the wear and tear of seven and a half years in office. The current government is no doubt legal and supported by an important electoral process, but it lacks the confidence of a large portion of the population disillusioned by the political class. The survey by Spain's Center for Sociological Research also shows that the Spanish public views its politicians as the country's third major societal problem after unemployment and economic uncertainty. Less than 20 percent of those surveyed think Rajoy or Rubalcaba will be able to solve Spain's debt woes. This is chiefly because more people believe important economic decisions are no longer taken by national governments but instead by supra-national institutions. Many fear the effect profound changes will have in Spain on stability and democracy. The policies that will be implemented by PP after the elections are expected to be similar to those of the PSOE over the last three years. The European Union and International Monetary Fund has clearly set out its rules: austerity, cuts in public spending and retrenchment of social rights to reduce the public deficit. At the same time, the PP will move toward deregulation and increasing flexibility of the economy to improve international competitiveness and reduce labor costs. Their plan is to focus on an export-oriented economic policy and boost trade ties with Asia in general and China in particular, like Zapatero's government has been doing over the last few years.