PM adopts long-term forecast of Russia’s socioeconomic development

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has adopted the long-term forecast of the country’s social and economic development in the period up to 2030. “I have approved the long-term forecast of Russia’s social and economic development in the period up to 2030,” Medvedev said during his Monday’s meeting with deputy prime ministers. “The document embraces rather a long term period. This is a strategic document, which should became a basis for the development of separate sectors of the economy and regions, as well as for the decision making activities aimed at the implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects,” the prime minister said. In his words, the document as a whole will enhance the country’s competitiveness and promote the industrial and agricultural modernisation. The document envisages three major scenarios of the long-term development, he said. In the prime minister’s opinion, it is rather hard to make forecasts for 17 years. “But it is of huge important to understand our goals,” he said. The document was drafted by the Russian Economic Development Ministry in compliance with the President’s decree “On Long-Term State Economic Policy” and envisages creation and modernisation of high-efficient working places, intensive development of high-tech sectors of the economy, the hike of investments activities and improvement of the business climate, higher labour capacity and resolution of social development problems, the government’s press service said on Monday. The document envisages three major scenarios of the long-term development – conservative, innovative and an accelerated growth scenarios. The scenarios envisage that the trend of market globalisation with the advanced growth of the global trade and with the decline in the revenue gap between the developing and developed countries will remain unchanged up to 2030. Besides, the three scenarios are based on rather traditional assumption that the Urals oil blend price will be at about 91-110 US dollars per barrel on the global markets in 2013-2030 in the real prices of 2010. The conservative scenario is characterized by moderate economic growth rates on the basis of active modernization of the fuel and energy and raw materials sectors of the Russian economy, while a certain lagging behind of the civil high-tech and medium-tech sectors will remain. Besides, the modernisation will mainly be based on foreign-designed technologies and knowledge. Under the scenario, the GDP annual average growth is estimated at 3.0-3.2 percent in 2013-2030, while capital investments – at 4.7 percent. Russia’s share in the global GDP is projected to go down from 3.8 percent in 2012 to 3.6 percent in 2030. The innovation-based scenario calls for a greater role of investment in generating economic growth and strengthening Russia’s positions in the world economy. It is based on the creation of modern transport infrastructure and a competitive sector of high-tech production and knowledge economy along with modernisation of the energy and resource sectors. According to the scenario, innovations will have to be turned into a leading source of economic growth and increasing the efficiency of human resources in 2020-2022 in order to improve social parameters of development. Proceeding from this scenario, the GDP annual average growth is estimated at 4.0-4.2 percent in 2013-2030, while capital investments – at 5.9 percent. Russia’s share in the world’s GDP will go up to 4.3 percent by 2030. The accelerated development scenario is aimed at more intensive use of all existing factors of the economic growth and envisages the stepping up of reforms for the improvement of the business climate, as well as more intensive use of national savings funds, hike of the state expenditures for the development of social, energy and transport infrastructures, creation of the large-scale non-mineral export sector and higher foreign capital inflow. Under the scenario, the GDP annual average growth is projected at 5.0-5.4 percent, while capital investments at 8.2 percent. Russia’s share in the global GDP will go up to 5.3 percent by 2030. Herein, the latter scenario is characterised with higher risks of macroeconomic misbalance. In particular, it envisages the growth of the corporate sector’s debts at 119 percent of the GDP by 2030 (78 percent of the GDP – innovative scenario) by 2030, while hike of the private debts is estimated at 65 percent of the GDP (52 percent of the GDP – innovative scenario). The long-term forecast of the country’s social and economic development in the period up to 2030 forms the ground for the working out of long-term strategies and other documents of the state strategic planning.