Poland braces for election pitched as key for economy

Poland braced Saturday for a general election in which centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk aims to win an unprecedented second term, staking his claim as a safe pair of hands in tough economic times. Tusk and the conservative and left-wing opposition pushed to the wire before a campaign blackout from midnight Friday left a day's truce before polls opened at 7:00 am (0500 GMT) Sunday. Surveys have shown the two-party coalition led by Tusk's Civic Platform (PO) a whisker short of a new majority, despite a percentage lead on ex-premier Jaroslaw Kaczynski's conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party. If PO stays at the helm, it would be a first for an incumbent party since the 1989 demise of Poland's communist regime. Criss-crossing the nation of 38 million, Tusk has underscored his economic stewardship and recalled the political rifts of hardball Kaczynski's premiership. "This a new Poland, requiring cooperation, understanding and unity," he said on the campaign trail. "In these turbulent times Poland can't afford any radical moves," he insisted. Poland, which joined the EU in 2004 and currently holds the 27-nation bloc's presidency, has weathered the global crisis well. Its economy expanded 1.7 percent in 2009. While a shadow of previous years, it made Poland the only EU member to maintain growth. Last year, output grew 3.8 percent. Poland's central bank has forecast 4.0 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2012. Poland is not in the eurozone -- Tusk has said it could by 2015 meet economic criteria for euro adoption but has not set an entry target. But with Poland's main EU trade partners in the debt-struck eurozone, jitters remain, and Tusk has pledged to keep cutting the budget deficit to offset risks. With ordinary Poles' concerns in mind, the opposition has focused on issues such as inflation, pensions and healthcare privatisation. PiS ruled in 2005-2007, with Kaczynski premier in 2006-2007 until his coalition with the far-right and populists unravelled and disgruntled Poles handed Tusk power in a snap ballot. Kaczynski was the identical twin of conservative president Lech Kaczynski, elected in 2005 and killed in a plane crash in Russia in April 2010. Tusk ally Bronislaw Komorowski beat Jaroslaw Kaczynski in snap presidential polls that July. Kaczynski, who confronted EU allies regularly as premier, recently told AFP he was a "euro-realist", not a sceptic. But this week he returned to familiar territory, lashing out at Germany for seeking to subjugate Poland hand in hand with Russia. Tusk, who has worked to mend fences since 2007, blasted Kaczynski for "waging war". Melding domestic and foreign issues Friday, Kaczynski in turn slammed PO. "Poles are fed up with the arrogance towards the weak of those who bow to the powerful at home and abroad," he said. A Friday survey by pollsters TNS OBOP -- accurate in past ballots -- tipped PO to win some 40 percent of Sunday's vote to PiS's 29 percent. But it gave PO 202 seats, down from 208 in the outgoing chamber, and said Tusk's coalition ally the Polish People's Party would drop to 27 from 31. With 229 seats in the 460-member parliament, the coalition could count on Poland's ethnic German minority party to hit a 231-seat majority, TNS OBOP said. The election wildcard is the new Palikot Movement of flamboyant former vodka tycoon and ex-PO member Janusz Palikot. Forecast to take 43 seats, it has been seen as a potential ally if PO needs one -- though Tusk has dismissed such talk. It is unusual in deeply Catholic Poland for anti-clericalism and for pushing gay partnerships, plus legalised marijuana. PiS, often supported by the clergy, used stark billboards reading: "Tusk = Palikot in Power". TNS OBOP tipped PiS to obtain 149 seats, up from 146. It said the opposition Democratic Left Alliance could fall to 37 from 43 -- a new blow for a party that ruled in 2001-2005 -- while no other movements were seen winning seats.