Poles vote in presidential cliffhanger

Poles began voting Sunday in the second round of a too-close-to-call presidential election with incumbent centrist Bronislaw Komorowski trying to fend off the populist challenge of conservative newcomer Andrzej Duda.

The result is also being billed as a pointer to the outcome of the general election later this year, with analysts saying that disillusioned voters seeking change will play a key role in both votes.

After nearly eight years in power, the centrist Civic Platform (PO) -- associated with Komorowski -- is running neck and neck in the polls with Duda's right-wing opposition Law and Justice Party (PiS).

Komorowski, a 62-year-old communist-era dissident who was jailed by the regime, was stunned by his razor-thin defeat in the first round to his energetic challenger on May 10.

Duda, a 43-year-old lawyer and MEP with a populist streak, scored a victory by just one percent by winning over disillusioned voters with promises of generous social spending, an earlier retirement age and lower taxes.

"I voted for Duda because I want change," public sector employee Wieslawa Lorenc, 46, told AFP after casting her ballot Sunday in the Warsaw suburb of Mokotow.
"The retirement age just isn't right. Miners, nurses, teachers, they're not earning enough and the job market is bad."

Head of state since 2010, Komorowski is a seasoned defence specialist who garnered support from the Polish-born former US national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski as well as a bevy of Polish actors and athletes.

But some average supporters say they simply want to avoid an "unpredictable" PiS-influenced presidency.

"With a very heavy heart, I voted for Komorowski," Warsaw voter Alicja, 34, told AFP.

She had backed anti-establishment candidate, rock star Pawel Kukiz, in round one to protest the "lack of opportunity for young people on the job market."

Analysts insist that Sunday's vote is too close to call.

"The victory of one or the other will be a narrow one and is impossible to predict on the basis of polls," Stanislaw Mocek, a political scientist at the Polish Academy of Sciences told AFP.

The Polish head of state acts as commander in chief of the armed forces, heads foreign policy and is able to introduce and veto legislation.

- Power play -

Analysts suggest that Komorowski's struggles are in large measure a signal from voters to his friends in the PO.

In power since 2007, the party is seen as having failed to keep its promises in key areas like administrative and tax reform.

The rival PiS, led by controversial ex-premier Jaroslaw Kaczynski, knows wooing disillusioned voters is key to its ambitions for a comeback both in the presidency and parliament.

Kaczynski -- whose twin brother the late president Lech Kaczynski died in a 2010 plane crash in Russia -- is making no secret of his wish to return to power. A Duda win could pave the PiS's way to parliament.

After his defeat to Komorowski in the 2010 presidential election, the 65-year-old Kaczynski floated the upbeat Duda as his party's candidate and has himself kept a markedly low profile during campaigning.

- Winning over the undecided -

Komorowski and Duda were kissing babies and shaking hands nationwide right up to the last hours of the campaign, trying to win over the undecided.

Who captures the support of those people who voted for Kukiz, a newcomer to politics, in the first round is key.

He scored a surprise third place with 20 percent thanks to disillusioned voters, especially young Poles struggling in the job market.

A country of 38 million people, Poland is the only EU member to have avoided recession over the last quarter century.

Its economy is set to expand by 3.5 percent this year, yet joblessness has remained stubbornly high at 11.3 percent.

"On Sunday, Poland will choose between two factions. First, that of reason and predictability represented by Komorowski, who is well-known to Poles," Mocek said.

"And second, that of faith and unpredictability embodied by Duda, because this isn't an independent politician: behind him lurks Jaroslaw Kaczynski," he insisted.

Exit polls are expected when voting ends at 2000 GMT.