Regional elections in Spain provide test for Rajoy

The Spanish regions of Galicia and Euskadi (the Basque region) will hold the elections for their regional parliaments, in what can be seen as a test of public support for Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. The two elections are held 11 months after the People's party (PP) led by Rajoy won an overall majority in the Spanish general elections last November. Rajoy and the PP used their majority to embark on a drastic austerity policy of spending cuts and labor reforms. Those cuts and reforms provoked Spain's labor unions on Friday to confirm the holding of a general strike on November 14, the second in 2012 following an earlier strike on March 29 over Rajoy's labor reforms which make it easier and cheaper for companies to fire workers. Polls showed the PP maintains or might even have widened its 1-seat majority in the Galician parliament, despite the economic crisis. The PP were strongly criticized for their handling of the crisis, but in a generally conservative region, the effect of the issue appears to have died down, especially in the face of the weakness of the opposition Socialists (PSOE). They have clearly not recovered from their defeat in last general elections. However, late polls also showed many voters are undecided, which could provoke a late swing away from the PP, or possibly a low turnout. In Euskadi, the Basque independence movement enjoys a visible strength, and there is widespread dissatisfaction with the PP's handling of the national economy. The PP is likely to lose seats and be reduced to the fourth political force in the region, behind the PSOE, who look certain to lose control of the region and suffer heavy losses. The conservative Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) also looks likely to lose votes, but will become the biggest single party in the region. Many of PNV's votes would go to Bildu, a radical left wing, nationalist group. This will be the first time that Bildu is allowed to stand at the election. If they join forces, the two nationalist parties will together have enough votes to form a government with a comfortable majority over PP and PSOE, and this will lead them to invoke the issue of Basque independence alongside the Catalan region.