Russia, Iran both propping up Assad, coordinating military expansion

Russia’s increased military assistance to Syria provides President Bashar al Assad’s embattled regime with a welcome boost to its hold on power after a series of territorial losses this year to rebel forces, the Christian Science Monitor news organization said in a report.

While Russia appears to have coordinated its military expansion with Iran, Assad’s other key ally, the move could also serve as a counterbalance to Tehran’s powerful influence in Syria, a phenomenon that has generated ripples of unease in some circles of the Damascus regime, the report said.

Russia and Iran are staunch allies of Assad and collectively have provided diplomatic, financial, military, and material support to help his regime stave off the challenge posed by opposition groups.

Both countries have much at stake: Syria is one of the few Middle Eastern countries where Russia continues to wield influence, and it provides Iran with a vital geographical conduit to its Lebanese protégé Hezbollah. It is also a key component of the axis of resistance, an alliance of countries and parties opposed to Israel and Western regional interests.

“Both Iran and Russia want to preserve the political system in Syria, to keep Assad in power” says Rajab Safarov, the director of the Moscow-based Center for Studying Modern Iran. “Assad’s defeat would have a serious impact on Iran and wouldn’t suit [the interests of] Moscow, either.”

Still, despite the shared interest of Moscow and Tehran in the Assad regime’s survival, there are differences that Russia’s expanding military presence in Syria may expose in the coming months.

“Until recently, the Iranians had much a bigger involvement on the ground than the Russians. So I think the increase in [Russian] arms supplies is probably an attempt to balance the situation on the ground,” says Nikolay Kozhanov, a visiting fellow of the Russian-Eurasia program at London’s Chatham House and nonresident fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center.

The report said Russia continues to work with the Syrian state, while Iran has set up a parallel security structure of local militias and foreign Shiite expeditionary forces from Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, granting it prolonged influence in Syria if the Assad regime falls.

Russia seeks to preserve the territorial integrity of Syria and prevent it from breaking into militia-run fiefdoms, it added. "That is a goal shared by the Assad regime, which continues to fight for distant and isolated areas in the far north, south, and east of the country despite a critical manpower shortage in the decimated Syrian Army."

The priority of Iran, on the other hand, is to hold onto the western periphery of Syria, with access to Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Mediterranean coast. In recent months, Iranian-supported forces, including Hezbollah, have pulled back from outer-lying areas to concentrate on securing the key real estate from south of Damascus to Latakia on the coast in the northwest corner of the country.

“The Russians see it as important that the country remain with its current borders ... [but] I think the Iranians will be satisfied with control over certain areas of the country with pro-Iranian groupings that would ensure their access to Lebanon and Hezbollah,” says Kozhanov, previously a diplomat at the Russian Embassy in Tehran. “That’s the difference, and that difference is clearly understood in Moscow.”
Source: MENA