Santorum ahead of Romney in Michigan

Conservative darling Rick Santorum has pulled ahead of presumptive Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney in the key battleground state of Michigan, according to two polls released Monday. The Santorum surge is the latest surprise in the topsy-turvy race to win the Republican party’s nomination to take on President Barack Obama in November. Romney, whose father was once the governor of Michigan, had been expected to coast to an easy victory in the midwestern state and held a 15 point lead there in polls last week. Santorum is now out front at 39 percent to 24 percent for Romney, 12 for libertarian Ron Paul and 11 percent for Newt Gingrich in a survey by Public Policy Polling. An American Research Group survey gave Santorum a narrower lead of 33 percent with Romney at 27 percent, Gingrich at 21 percent and Paul at 12 percent of likely voters in the February 28 primary. The sharp reversal comes after the former US senator from Pennsylvania dented Romney’s aura of inevitability with surprise — but largely symbolic — wins in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri last week. Those low-turnout nominating events — like one Romney won in Maine Saturday — are non-binding, which leaves Romney with a solid lead in actual pledged delegates to the party’s nominating convention in August. But the wins highlighted the conservative base’s uneasiness with the former governor of Massachusetts and provided a huge boost to Santorum’s flagging campaign. “We feel very, very good going into Michigan and Arizona,” Santorum told CNN Sunday. “We think this is a two-person race right now and we’re just focused on — on making sure that folks know we’re the best alternative to Barack Obama and we have the best chance of beating him. “ Santorum’s rise in Michigan was attributed to a “stellar” favorability rating of 67 percent and Republican voters “increasingly souring on Gingrich,” Public Policy Polling said. “Santorum’s becoming something closer and closer to a consensus conservative candidate as Gingrich bleeds support,” the pollster said in releasing its results. But while Gingrich’s favorability has dropped to 38 percent — while 47 percent of respondents have a negative opinion of the former House speaker — his continued presence in the race is a big boost to Romney. Some 54 percent of Gingrich supporters said they would go to Santorum if he dropped out, compared to only 21 percent for Romney and 14 percent for Paul. That would expand Santorum’s lead to 48 percent while Romney would win 27 percent and Paul would get 13 percent. “For all that, Santorum probably shouldn’t get too comfortable,” the polling group said. “There is a lot of potential for fluidity in the Michigan race, with only 47 percent of voters saying they’re strongly committed to their candidate while 53 percent are open to changing their minds in the next two weeks.” The PPP survey of 404 Republican primary voters between February 10th and 12th had a margin of error of 4.9 percent. The American Research Group survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters on February 11 and 12 had a margin of error of four percentage points.