Uncertain future for Turkey under emboldened AKP party

Turkey's long-dominant Justice and Development Party (AK) scored a stunning election success at the weekend with a vote that returned it to single-party rule after months of political uncertainty.

The result is likely to bolster strongman President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he seeks to expand his powers, but analysts warn it could further exacerbate deep rifts in Turkish society.
- A divided Turkey -
- "We are now faced with a society divided into two camps of which Erdogan sits right in the middle," said Can Dundar, columnist with the leading opposition Cumhuriyet newspaper.

"Those who are ready to die for Erdogan and those who cannot stand him anymore have been torn apart, forever."
- Finansbank chief economist Inan Demir said the result raised "uncomfortable questions" about Turkey's future.

"On the one hand, the AKP and Erdogan, now secure in their ruling posts, may adopt a unifying and inclusive stance.
"This could involve re-initiating the Kurdish peace talks, allowing freer rein to AKP moderates... and in the process, a return to prudent macro(economic) policies, all of which would undoubtedly be market friendly.

"On the other hand, the AKP and especially Erdogan may be emboldened and see these results as a licence to continue with what they have been doing, i.e: insistence on executive presidency, unrelenting pressure on opposing business and media groups, aggressive foreign policy, hardline stance regarding the Kurdish issue and obsessive calls for lower interest rates.
- Consolidating Erdogan's power?
- Natalie Martin, an expert on Turkish politics at Nottingham Trent University in Britain, said Erdogan has "moved a step closer to transferring influence from the parliament to the presidential palace -- and consolidating his power once and for all".

"Whilst the AKP does not have the so-called 'supermajority' which would have enabled it to push these measures straight through, it is much closer than it had thought it would be. Erdogan has turned defeat to victory in a few months. I'm sure a handful of votes won't stop him now.
- William Jackson, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said investors had probably been encouraged by the fact that while the AK party secured a majority, it was a fairly slim one, which he described as a "Goldilocks scenario".
"As a result, it will be a tall order for the AK party to push through plans to amend the constitution in order to strengthen the presidency -- a move which, it is feared, would cement some of president Erdogan's more authoritarian tendencies in recent years."

He noted it would require 367 seats out of a total of 550 in parliament to change the constitution directly, or 330 to put the matter to a referendum. The AKP is estimated to have 316 seats in the next parliament.
- The Kurdish conflict -
Dogu Ergil, an expert on Kurdish affairs at Istanbul's Fatih University, said he did not think the government would renew peace talks with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) after the collapse of a 2013 ceasefire.

The party thinks the rebels "stabbed it in the back by attacking at the very first opportunity," he said, referring to a deadly attack on Turkish policemen to avenge a bombing on Kurdish activists in July that killed 34 people and set off a wave of tit-for-tat violence.

"Instead, I expect the government to talk directly with representatives of other Kurdish movements, including the HDP," the Peoples' Democracy Party which won over 10 percent in Sunday's vote.

"If not, the Kurdish problem will become gangrenous. But I don't expect them to kickstart talks very soon or give big concessions to the Kurds.
"The government will first try to sort out its own problems, so the Kurdish problem will stay in limbo for a while.

He said that by helping the HDP break the threshold to enter parliament but not giving them as much support as in June, "the Kurdish people have shown that they don't favour violence and the HDP's links with the PKK."
- Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the PKK conflict had driven both nationalist Turks and conservative Kurdish voters back to the AKP, while liberal Turks abandoned the HDP.

"The recent sense of instability in Turkey, coupled with Erdogan's "strong man who can protect you" strategy seems to have worked.

"On the Kurdish issue, I predict that Erdogan will continue with the military offensive to break the PKK's back and then bring the PKK to the negotiating table from a position of weakness."
- The economy -
The Turkish lira and stock market rallied after the vote removed immediate concerns about further political uncertainty, said Jackson of Capital Economics.

But he highlighted deep-seated problems in the emerging economy.

"GDP growth has been weak over the past four years... and high inflation appears to have become entrenched. This has all coincided with a growing sense that the AK party -– which had an impressive economic track record in the 2000s -– has stalled on reform efforts, and may even have started to reverse course.

Investors will look for signs the party is trying to regain its economic credibility, Jackson said.

"Chief among these would be moves to reinforce the central bank's independence. However, given developments over the past few years, we're not holding our breath."

Source: AFP