Armed conflict may lead to military escalation between Khartoum, rebels

Recent developments in Sudan make local observers to believe that the armed conflict between the Sudanese government and rebels of Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile regions might lead to a military escalation that would aggravate the humanitarian crisis in the three regions.

As the cease-fire declared by Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir in last September ends together with the Sudanese army's announcement of redeployment of its forces at the conflict zones and the failure of the newest round of peace talks between Khartoum and the rebels, observers believe that the possibility for the parties to adopt the military solution in the coming period seems to be very high.

Khartoum has accused the rebels of Darfur and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM)/northern sector of failing the 10th round of peace talks in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, after the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP), led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki, announced their suspension without giving a date of resumption.

Sudan government's two delegations to the peace talks on Wednesday held a joint press conference, holding the rebels responsible for the failure to reach a cessation of hostilities deal.

"We were so close to signing a draft framework deal where about 90 percent of the issues have been resolved, but the agreement was not signed due to procrastination of the SPLM/northern sector," Ibrahim Mahmoud Hamid, Sudanese presidential assistant and head of government delegation to the two areas talks, said at the press conference.

Amin Hassan Omer, head of the government delegation to the peace talks with the Darfur rebels, for his part, reiterated Khartoum's rejection to sign a deal on cessation of hostilities agreement in Darfur unless the armed groups specify the areas of their presence in the region.

"We have repeatedly reiterated our readiness to sign cessation of hostilities deal if the armed movements specified the places of their presence. We believe the armed movements want to take advantage of the cessation of hostilities to redeploy their forces, but we will not allow that," said Omer.

In the meantime, the Sudanese army has vowed to raise the level of alert via continuing the redeployment of its forces to cut the lines of supply for the rebels in Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile areas together with working to recapture Kauda town, the stronghold of the rebels of the SPLM/northern sector in the Nuba Mountains.

"The army will continue its deployment in a manner that enhances the protection of the country's borders," local media on Wednesday quoted Awad ibn Auf, Sudan's defense minister, as saying.

The Sudanese minister's remarks come only two days after the elapse of the two-month cease-fire, declared by the Sudanese president last September.

Meanwhile, Sudanese observers expect that the conflict in Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile areas would witness a military escalation under the current developments.

"The Addis Ababa negotiations were expected to fail because the concerned parties entered into the talks with their same previous stances," Abdul-Rahim Al-Sunni, a Sudanese political analyst, told Xinhua.

"Each time a round of negotiations fails, the parties resort to military escalation and this is what will happen this time too. The parties will opt for war before they return to the negotiation table by pressure from the African mediation," he said.

The Sudanese government has been fighting rebel armed groups in Sudan's Darfur region since 2003, while South Kordofan and Blue Nile have been witnessing armed clashes between the Sudanese army and the SPLM/northern sector rebels since 2011.

So far, 10 rounds of peace talks between the Sudanese government and the SPLM/northern sector in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa have failed to end the conflict in the two areas.

Sources: XINHUA