Why Man Utd can lose to City

A few trusted souls believe Manchester United will beat Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium on April 30. A few thousand one might presume going by the response to The Sun’s online poll where respondents voted for a Red Devil win (maybe only Reds voted). To those numbers add Roberto Mancini. The Manchester City manager also believes in a United victory (a bit lame on the mind games front). But, the one person who probably knows that United go in to the game as the clear and favourite under-dogs is the United manager Sir Alex Ferguson. His muted response in the wake of the 4-4 shocking draw with Everton, the lack of bluster and bravado and the dropping of the head as that game ended – all point to something Sir Alex knows, that perhaps we don’t. United may lose at City. But, they can still win the title. That is because City’s toughest game is not the one against Manchester United. It may be the biggest, but it will not be the one that decides the title. That game for City (and for United) will be the one against Newcastle United. With a three-point cushion, or more like a fig leaf, United can afford to lose one more game. City cannot. And it is the Blues travelling to what has this season become a fortress  - St James’ Park – for the second-last game of the season that will (and should) really strike fear in the heart of Roberto Mancini. We can look at Newcastle for the reasons why. But first, let’s look at City itself. In away games this season Manchester City have drawn four and lost five – 23 points dropped. City do not travel well at the best of times, will they be able to cope with the immense pressure now. Then there is Newcastle the form team of the English Premier League. The Newcastle surge has left the Magpies on the verge of Champions League qualification and that means in Geordie land expectations have not been higher. They have also not been more realistic. Newcastle have one of the toughest run-ins of the top six teams with games against Chelsea as well. Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs and Newcastle can all miss out on qualifying for the Champions League. Which is why Newcastle will not let points slip away now – not even when mighty Manchester City come visiting. In Demba Ba, 16 goals, and Papiss Cisse 11 goals, Newcastle have the matching of Sergio Aguero, 22 goals and Carlos Tevez, 4. In Hatem Ben Arfa, 6 goals they have the matching of David Silva, 6 goals. In Cheick Tiote they have the matching of Yahya Toure. Newcastle have the matching of Manchester City. It is May 6 and not April 30 that will decide the title. Which is why Manchester United can afford to lose one more game.