Dubai's credit risk drops as business confidence returns

Dubai's credit risk has dropped to the lowest in almost two months as bond repayments and profitability at companies boost confidence in the emirate's economic rebound.The cost to insure Dubai's debt against default dropped to 317 basis points on August 1, the lowest since June 7, according to credit default swap prices from data provider CMA. They were at 325 basis points yesterday, still down more than 50 per cent from the 655 reached in November 2009 after state-owned Dubai World announced plans to restructure about $25 billion (Dh91.75 billion) in debt.The emirate, which received $20 billion in aid from Abu Dhabi in 2009, has benefited from stable government in contrast to some countries in the region facing political upheaval.Economic growth in Dubai may accelerate to about 2.8 per cent, the International Monetary Fund forecasts in a report published in May. That comes after growth of 2.4 per cent last year and a contraction in 2009, according to government statistics.Dubai "has fully regained its status as the regional hub, doubling as a safe haven", Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, a Dubai-based senior economist for the Middle East and North Africa at Standard Chartered Plc, said in an e-mail on Thursday."The marked improvement of the real economy combined with improved perception has helped the CDS spreads to go through a tightening trend."The difference between the cost of insuring Dubai's debt against default for five years over Abu Dhabi's has tumbled 157 basis points from this year's high to 229 on August 2, according to CMA, which is owned by CME Group Inc and compiles prices quoted by dealers in the privately negotiated market. The contracts pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a swap protecting $10 million of debt.Dubai Holding Commercial Operations Group, a unit of one of the emirate's state-controlled holding companies, said on July 14 it repaid a 250-million Swiss franc (Dh1.19 billion) bond and is committed to meeting future obligations. Dubai Group is in talks with banks to alter the terms on $10 billion of liabilities, while state-owned Dubai World agreed with creditors on its restructuring in March. From / Gulf News