Jordan between two summits

Jordan is a center of regional activity this week. The first one was the Saudi-Jordanian Summit on Monday after the arrival of King Salman and the Arab League Summit on Wednesday. These are two important political events linked to complicated and dangerous regional issues.

If you ask Jordan’s neighbors their opinion of it, the answer is usually that it is the most capable country in tolerating and dealing with crises. Amid the Palestinian refugee crisis, Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, Iraq’s multiple wars and the disasters of the Arab Spring, Jordan has always been capable of handling upheaval.

For Saudi Arabia, Jordan has been a key regional ally since the 1960s, carrying out significant roles while confronting dangerous crises in Iraq and Syria. Both kingdoms have dealt with crises carefully, realistically and calmly. The new aspect of bilateral relations is the effort to establish a formula for long-term economic cooperation, which is not governed by support and aid.

Politically, Saudi Arabia has been very active for months in weaving a network of regional and international relations. It included King Salman’s Asia tour, during which he visited Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan and China.

After coordinating Saudi and Jordanian positions, the annual Arab League Summit is being held amid difficult circumstances, with major regional wars raging in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya. Reports that Syrian President Bashar Assad may attend have been dismissed as rumors. But all sides admit they are surprised that he has been able to remain in power after six years of a mass revolution against his regime.

Assad’s return to the Arab fold is possible if he can get rid of his Iranian ally on the ground, not just by making pledges for the future. But this is unlikely because his forces are weak and Iran controls important aspects of the Syrian state by claiming to support it.

At the same time, everyone is shocked by Syrian opposition fighetrs’ ability to go on with their war against Assad despite the siege imposed on them, the millions killed and displaced, and the failure of regional and international powers to support them.

No one expects a magical diplomatic solution from Russia or UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura, whose attendance at the Arab League Summit will be his last major appearance. Iran, with its strong military presence in Iraq and Syria, must be top of the agenda of Arab leaders’ discussions. There is a growing feeling at the Arab League that Iran is a threat to everyone, no longer just to Gulf countries.