British c bank policy not to change with improvement of economy

The encouraging growth in the British economy revealed in data published this week will not result in any early change in the central bank policy because the economy is still not strong enough to take a return to 'normal' policies, economists said Thursday. The all-sector PMI for June showed the fastest growth of business activity since March 2011, pointing to a potential 0.5 percent GDP growth in the second quarter this year. The composite PMI figure hit 56.5 in June up from 54.8 in May. Manufacturing PMIs showed the sector maintaining the solid second quarter performance, with the index at 52.5, up from a revised 51.5 in May, the third month running above the neutral 50 mark. The growth was broad based, with all sectors benefiting, but textiles and clothing and food and drink did particularly well. "They have risen by a point per month over the past six months," George Buckley, chief UK economist with Deutsche Bank, told Xinhua. That would give a GDP growth rate of 05-1.0 percent quarter on quarter. Buckley said it was unlikely to hit 1.0 percent but it was nevertheless "encouraging." The implications for policy were uncertain, said Buckley. When changes in interest rates are plotted against composite PMI figures, there are key points where under normal circumstances there would be a tightening of policy by the Bank of England (BOE), the central bank. Buckley said the average level for such a tightening was 57.5 percent on the composite. Buckley said, "That's just a point above where it is now. Does that mean there is going to be a tightening if there is another point gain? Clearly not from what they have said today." Buckley said that the achieving a majority on the nine-man Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the BOE would be a long process. Buckley said that historically it has taken a year or more to get just a third of the MPC voting for a raise in rates, and he pointed to the example of 2010-11. Buckley said, "If the same thing were to happen this time, then one more month for the July figures and then another year after that to get one third of the MPC onboard. That would be August 2014, and it would be late 2014 or early 2015 before a rate rise could win enough support from the committee. Dr Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist with IHS Global Insights, said, "Robust new orders for services and manufacturing combined suggest that the economy is carrying decent momentum into the second half of the year." He said he doubted that this growth rate would be sustained through the second half of the year given still significant domestic growth headwinds and an uncertain global economic environment. Archer said, "Nevertheless, with the economy currently showing widespread improvement, we believe the chances have significantly increased that the UK can achieve sustained modest growth through the second half of the year and beyond."