Euro holds near 1-month high on Europe optimism

The euro hovered near a one-month high on Monday after Group of 20 officials said they expected an Oct 23 European Union summit to decisively address the region's debt woes, supporting hopes for a long-term solution. The euro, last at $1.3876, rallied some 3.5 percent last week after the leaders of Germany and France pledged to unveil a new package for solving the two-year debt crisis by the end of the month, including an agreement on how to recapitalise banks. Hopes for the plan - which also aims to make Greece's mountain of debt more manageable and to bolster the firepower of the Eurozone's rescue fund - helped to lift the euro off a nine-month trough around $1.3145 plumbed on October 4 and boost it to its highest in four weeks at $1.3895 on Friday. "After the developments at the latest summit, we can assume that at long last concrete measures to solve the crisis will be implemented next weekend," said Sumino Kamei, senior currency analyst, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. "But the euro's rally last week was caused mostly by short-covering. It will have a hard time going above $1.40 ahead of the EU meeting as contagion fears - indicated by elevated levels of European bond yields - are still showing almost no signs of abating," said Kamei. While attendees of the G20 summit said the pace of discussions was encouraging, policymakers are facing stiff resistance from banks over plans for greater private sector participation in Greek debt restructuring and moves to force banks to raise capital. Underscoring the difficult issues that need to be addressed in negotiations, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Sunday that Greece's debt crisis could not be solved without larger write-downs on Greek debt. In July, private creditors agreed to a voluntary write-down of 21 percent on their Greek debt, a figure which now looks insufficient. Eurozone officials said last week that losses are now likely to be between 30 and 50 percent. The euro also face stiff technical resistance at $1.3937 marked by a couple of daily highs hit in September, as well as its 55-day moving average near $1.3952. Support for the euro is seen around $1.3834 - roughly matching a 38.2 percent retracement of a fall from around $1.4940 in May to a nine-month low of $1.3145 hit earlier in October. Against the yen, the euro was steady at 107.05 yen, near a five-week high of 107.45 yen hit on Friday and off a 10-year low of 100.77 yen hit in early October. The greenback was little changed at 77.18 yen after hitting 77.45 on Friday, near a one-month peak set on Wednesday. Last week the dollar gained 0.6 percent, but remained tethered to a tight band against the Japanese currency. A mild increase in risk appetite kept the safe-haven dollar under pressure, with the dollar index against a basket of currencies holding near a one-month low of 76.508 hit on Friday after slipping 2.6 percent last week. It last stood at 76.644. Commodity currencies, among the biggest gainers last week, lost a little in early Asia trade. The Australian dollar, which posted its biggest weekly gain in more than two years last week, last traded down 0.3 percent at $1.0309. Its rally stalled ahead of resistance at $1.0380, the 200-day moving average, and at $1.0399, the Sept 16 high. Earnings releases from US companies including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Apple could also affect the euro's performance, which has closely tracked investors' appetite for stocks and other risky assets. On Monday, the focus again turns to Europe where German Finance Minister Schaeuble and European Central Bank Executive Board Member Juergen Stark are giving speeches in London and Berlin, respectively.